Fictional exampleInvented data, evaluated by the real policy. Not a customer's review.
The assumption reviewed
Owners of 5–30 person accounting firms will change their weekly workflow to use an automated deadline-tracking assistant.
Outcome: Iterate
Not yet. There is signal here, but not enough to build on, and not enough to stop.
Either a comparable-or-stronger alternative exists and is worth pursuing instead, or real uncertainty remains that more evidence could resolve.
- Not: The idea failed.
- Not: Nothing was learned.
- Not: This is a stall or a non-answer.
Why
- Real uncertainty remains that isn't yet resolved either way. More targeted evidence could resolve it.
Evidence quality audit
This sounds really useful. I'd love to see it when it's ready.
- Opinion · Weak
- Independent
- Current
- via outbound
- 22 Jul 2026
We'd probably sign up if it existed.
- Stated intent · Weak
- Related
- Current
- via referral
- 24 Jul 2026
Every January I lose a week rebuilding the deadline spreadsheet from last year's.
- Confirmed problem · Medium
- Independent
- Current
- via outbound
- 29 Jul 2026
Showed me a colour-coded shared spreadsheet that two staff update by hand every Monday.
- Existing workaround · Medium
- Independent
- Current
- via community
- 1 Aug 2026
- Independent sources come from 2 distinct channels.
- A disconfirmation attempt was recorded.
- No repair attempt was recorded.
How far the evidence has climbed
PAIDWhat they paidnothing here yet
Money changed hands, or a contract commits them to pay.
COMMITTEDWhat they committednothing here yet
They put real time, people or budget behind it.
DIDWhat they didevidence here
They acted: built a workaround, shared real data or access, changed how they work.
SAIDWhat they saidevidence here
Opinions, stated intent, and a problem described in their own words.
Contradictions
1 contradicting event recorded (2 Aug 2026). That is not yet repeated contradiction: the policy needs two events at least 7 days apart.
Falsifier status
If fewer than two of ten firms agree to connect a real client calendar within 30 days, this assumption is wrong.
Defined 15 Jul 2026; evidence collection began 20 Jul 2026. It was written down before the evidence was collected, so it can be used.
Not shown yet: what building would need
- This risk level needs at least one item of observed customer behaviour (shared data or access, a workflow change, a resource commitment, or payment) -- not opinions or stated intent alone.
Not shown yet: what stopping would need
Listed so you can see how far the evidence is from either end. These do not count against you.
- A real repair attempt is required before stopping -- one that actually changed pricing, ICP, message, or channel. None was recorded.
- Stopping requires at least two contradicting events at least 7 days apart. The recorded events don't yet meet that bar.
Evidence limitations
- A human review of this evidence is recommended before acting, though it is not required to reach this outcome.
Decision risk
Medium risk. The higher the risk of being wrong, the more the evidence has to show.
Cycle 1
This is the first evidence-gathering cycle for this assumption.
Next evidence step
Get one observed-behaviour item (shared data or access, a workflow change, a resource commitment, or payment) -- opinions alone won't clear this gate.